| What
Happened to the Odds?
by C. De Graff, Editor
The Sweepstakes Wire, March 2003 Issue
Recently, you may have come across a peculiar line
in the official rules of many popular online instant win games:
"Odds of winning instant-win prizes depend
on the number of eligible entries received."
Huh? What does that mean?
We are all familiar with "odds of winning".
From lottery tickets to in-store-on-package-instant-win- games to
online scratch-and-win, spin-and-win, scratch-and-match, etc., the
odds of winning are always clearly posted in the
rules. Here is an example from a Maybelline promotion that recently
ended:
A total of 500,000 game pieces are available
to be played in the Instant-Win Game, of which 49,996 are winning
pieces. Accordingly, the overall odds of obtaining one of 49,996
winning Game Pieces in the Instant-Win Game are 1:10. The Number,
Prize Description/Average Retail Value/Odds of Winning a specific
prize in the Instant-Win Game are as follows: (10) Samsung Digital
Camcorder/$500.00/1:50,000; (250) Samsung Digital Cell Phone/$199.00/1:2,000;
(400) Samsung MP3 Players/$99.00/1:1,250; (12,000) Maybelline
T-shirt & Makeup /$24.00/1:42; (37,336) Maybelline Makeup/$6.00/1:13;
PRIZES MAY BE SUBSTITUED BY THE INDEPENDENT JUDGES FOR ITEMS OF
EQUAL OR GREATER ARV.
Let's talk about this for a moment. This promotion
was actually pretty good - 1 in 10 odds are unbelievable. In fact,
it is a good indicator that this sponsor really wanted to give away
all of the prizes - maybe it was a sampling promotion. Unfortunately,
there was potentially a major hurdle to overcome in order to give
away these prizes. In order for the sponsor to give away all of
the prizes in this example, they may need as many as 500,000 players
to sign up - think about it, what if the five hundred thousandth
game piece is a winner? Wait, the sponsor thought of that, read
on:
SECOND CHANCE DRAWING: Unclaimed prizes not awarded
in the instant win game (if any) will be made available in a second
chance drawing. The second chance drawing will be held on or about
October 8, 2002 from all eligible entries.
So, the sponsor DID want to give away all of the
prizes. Well, problem solved. Of course, they probably would have
preferred to give them out in the first place. Wait a minute. Could
this be a case for that weird "Odds of winning instant-win
prizes depend on the number of eligible entries received."
line? Read on.
Today, the new trend in online instant win games
are time-based odds programs. Time-based odds allow the sponsor
or promoter to "seed" the prizes for even (or uneven if
they choose) distribution throughout the duration of the promotion.
This new design helps ensure that prizes are won, regardless of
the number of players, and that prizes are available to win throughout
the promotion. Older games had fixed odds (49,996 winners out of
500,000 in the example above), which often meant that many prizes
were not awarded. For example, if the winning game piece was number
500,000, then you needed that many players in order to have a winner.
Time-based odds have switched the promotions from having a winning
card number to having a winning time. If you are there at the right
time, you win!
So, if the Maybelline promotion had been time-based,
they could have seeded the prize pool to have 277 winning game pieces
each day for six months. This reduces the number of "necessary"
players from 500,000 to 49,996 in order to give away all prizes.
And, if ONLY 49,996 players actually play the game, your odds of
winning are now 1:1. That is what they mean by "Odds of winning
instant-win prizes depend on the number of eligible entries received."
Now that's good odds!
Click here
for a list of current time-based instant win games.
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About The Sweepstakes Wire
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